The street's read this morning is cautiously risk-on, anchored by an unrelenting AI-infrastructure capex narrative: Fermi's $6.5B binding 222MW TensorWave lease, Riot's 20-year $9.1B data center deal with Morgan Stanley financing attached, Nvidia's reported $500B Wall Street financing tie-up, and Ferguson's beat-and-raise all reinforce the 'AI buildout is real and bankable' thesis, keeping growth-over-value momentum intact at record streaks. The FOMC statement is in the tape but reads as a hold-steady non-event pending parsing, so desks default to earnings and deals. Offsetting: a genuine policy shock in health care as the administration guts childhood vaccine recommendations (Hep B, COVID, flu dropped; MMR to be split by EO), hitting large-cap vaccine pharma; Hormuz brinkmanship with Iran refusing negotiations through 2029 keeps a geopolitical bid under crude (helped by the Zawiya refinery explosion); and a notable cluster of guidance cuts (AECOM -33%, Upwork, TTEC, Nu Skin, OppFi) signals softness in services, consumer, and platform-economy demand beneath the AI headline strength.
Two quibbles with the likely consensus: (1) the FOMC items in the feed look like duplicated/stale calendar entries with no actual statement content, so any 'Fed non-event' framing is low-conviction until the text is parsed; (2) the street is likely over-crediting AI lease announcements from crypto-miner-adjacent names (Riot, Fermi) where counterparty quality and delivery timelines (2027-28) are unproven, while under-weighting the breadth of guidance cuts (AECOM, TTEC, Upwork, Nu Skin, OppFi) that suggest real demand softness in services and consumer beneath the AI headline euphoria. I'd shade the true overall reading a few points lower than the consensus tape suggests.